Mining in Russia has finally emerged from the shadows: a new tax regime and bitcoin forecast
The mining sector in Russia has transformed from a gray area into a fully legalized business. Now, any attempt to conceal cryptocurrency mining is doomed to fail—due to the colossal and easily traceable electricity consumption.
The basic law regulating the industry came into effect at the end of 2024. It allowed legal entities to officially engage in mining after being included in a special registry. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh per month was established, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. However, as practice shows, many private miners have still not submitted the documents. The reason is a complex bureaucratic procedure that ordinary citizens often simply do not understand.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach. Market participants did not feel any real harsh sanctions: penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing. News of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry. At the same time, the law leaves a loophole: full compensation of unpaid taxes allows avoiding severe punishment. A lenient approach is expected for small entrepreneurs—by analogy with utility debts, where a warning is issued first, and account blocking remains a last resort.
Tax Regime: A Paradoxical Advantage for Players
The new rules are paradoxically beneficial for the miners themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of the digital asset. Now, the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated:
- Individuals write off the cost of equipment within one reporting period.
- Legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more.
Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to calculations, the income tax will actually be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks much more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. This process creates a colossal constant load on the power grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal indicators. Detecting gray sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, as they know how to operate within the legal framework.
Bitcoin: Cycle Target — $180–250 Thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive.
Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, which includes over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself incorporates regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025. However, on October 11, 2025, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year.
At the same time, I keep the final price targets unchanged. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average figure is fixed at $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Probability of an Extreme Scenario
It is also worth considering the potential "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global mining capacity could shut down in a single day.
Due to the built-in rule of difficulty adjustment, which occurs every 2,016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger a cascade of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.
Expert Opinion: The Russian mining market is entering a new era of transparency. Legalization and a favorable tax regime create unique conditions for honest players, while simultaneously making gray schemes economically impractical and technically unviable. As for Bitcoin, the fundamental indicators remain bullish, and the current correction is just a matter of time before a new all-time high.