Altcoin selling pressure has hit 2020 lows: Is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet highly significant signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has collapsed to levels not seen since 2020. On the other, the altcoin season indicator is steadily approaching thresholds that historically preceded a massive rally.
Analyzing data from on-chain platforms, I see a classic accumulation pattern ahead of a potential move. The metric tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to a five-year low. This means sellers on spot markets have long and significantly dominated buyers. Moreover, according to one indicator, net selling has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months.
However, a second indicator paints a completely different picture. The Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant over a 180-day period currently stands at 18.48. Historically, when this index rises above 20, the market enters a phase of active capital flow from Bitcoin to altcoins — meaning a true altcoin season begins. We are dangerously close to this threshold.
Divergence in Analyst Opinions
There is no consensus among experts. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will not revisit their historical lows. In his view, the market has entered a "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing in a highly selective manner.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season requires large-scale money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. According to his estimates, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My professional opinion: The coincidence of two key indicators — extremely low selling pressure and the altcoin season index approaching a critical level — is no accident. The market is likely in the final accumulation phase. However, due to macroeconomic uncertainty and a lack of massive liquidity, the altcoin season will probably not be universal but highly selective. Investors should prepare for rallies in individual projects with strong fundamentals, rather than an unrestrained rise across the entire market.