Altcoin selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows: altcoin season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending strong signals that a trend change is approaching. Key CryptoQuant indicators suggest we are at a historical turning point, similar to the period before the 2020–2021 rally.
Selling pressure on spot altcoin markets (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has reached its lowest levels since 2020. The index tracking the difference between buying and selling volumes has nearly returned to zero. This means sellers no longer dominate — the market is in a state of extreme oversold conditions.
However, there is also a worrying signal: according to another CryptoQuant indicator, net altcoin sales (excluding BTC and ETH) have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. Platform analysts emphasize: "This is not about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net sales on spot exchanges." This points to prolonged, systemic pressure that has exhausted sellers' resources.
Altcoin Season Index on the verge of activation
A contrasting picture is painted by CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index. Its current value is 18.48, closely approaching the threshold of 20. Historically, crossing this level has triggered a full-fledged altcoin season. The market is not yet "overheated" with capital but is preparing for a liquidity shift.
Opinions diverge: who is right?
There is no consensus among analysts on the scenario for future developments. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will avoid new all-time lows. According to him, the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the cycle, where small players exit while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He expects a selective flow of capital into the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins.
At the same time, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season requires massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My expert opinion: Two contradictory signals from CryptoQuant are not a mistake but a reflection of market dichotomy. The 15-month selling pressure has exhausted sellers, while the altcoin season index shows readiness for a reversal. I lean toward Wedson's view: we are seeing not the end of altcoins, but the beginning of their selective growth. Capital will flow into projects with real fundamental value, not indiscriminately into everything. The altcoin season is near, but it will be different — more mature and targeted.