Mining in Russia: The era of transparency and inevitable legalization
The mining industry in Russia has finally emerged from the shadows. The legislative framework formed by the end of 2024 has transformed cryptocurrency mining from a gray sector into a full-fledged and transparent business. Now, attempts to conceal one's activities are doomed to fail—colossal energy consumption makes illegal farms visible to regulatory authorities.
The key moment was the adoption of the basic law allowing legal entities and individual entrepreneurs to officially engage in mining after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh has been set, along with the obligation to file tax reports. However, as practice shows, many ordinary miners have still not submitted documents, facing a complex bureaucratic procedure.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, not applying strict sanctions. Penalties mainly concerned illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing dramatically—news of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to exert real pressure on the industry. Nevertheless, the law provides the possibility of avoiding severe punishment with full compensation for unpaid taxes. It is logical to expect a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs, by analogy with utility debts, where account blocking remains a last resort.
Tax Preferences: Worth the Effort
Paradoxically, the new rules turned out to be beneficial for market participants themselves. Previously, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now, the fiscal burden falls exclusively on net profit, and equipment is allowed to be depreciated:
- Individuals can write off the cost of equipment in one reporting period.
- Legal entities and individual entrepreneurs are entitled to spread this process over 24 months or more.
Expenses officially include costs for electricity, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, the income tax will effectively be zero in the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks much more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom due to illegal activities.
Bitcoin: Cycle Targets
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, or technical analysis are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price has never fallen below the production cost for most devices—this factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall, but on October 11, 2025, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found a bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year. At the same time, the final price targets remain the same and are entirely based on a mathematical model. The minimum level is $180,000, and the average figure is fixed at $250,000. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Probability of an Extreme Scenario
It is also worth considering the risk of a "death spiral." If by the time of the halving the rate drops to $130,000 and the production cost rises to $180,000, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be shut down in one day. Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, which occurs once every 2,016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States, which increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
Nevertheless, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the rate as it approaches the critical threshold. The final levels of the current cycle will be adjusted based on network difficulty indicators.
Expert Opinion: The Russian mining market is entering a new era where transparency and compliance with the law are becoming not just an obligation, but an economic necessity. Players who cannot adapt to the new realities will be pushed out, and their place will be taken by more forward-thinking and disciplined participants.