CryptoQuant indicators signal the approaching altcoin season: selling pressure at lows not seen since 2020
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet extremely important signals. Analyzing on-chain data, I see that two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint diametrically opposite pictures, which, however, may indicate the approach of a long-awaited altcoin season.
The first indicator — the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) — has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. This suggests that selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low, with sales consistently dominating purchases. CryptoQuant analysts note that net selling on spot markets has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This is not just a correction, but a prolonged selling phase that historically preceded a trend reversal.
Altcoin Season Index: Approaching the Threshold
The second indicator, the Altcoin Season Index (180-day), on the contrary, shows an upward trend. Its current value is 18.48, approaching the historical threshold of 20 points. According to CryptoQuant data, exceeding this mark traditionally signals the start of an active altcoin season, when capital begins to flow en masse from Bitcoin to alternative coins.
Thus, we are observing a classic divergence: extreme selling pressure on the spot (often a sign of capitulation) combined with a rising index indicating an imminent capital shift. This is a classic setup for a reversal.
Analyst Opinions: Consensus or Divergence?
There is no consensus among experts, which adds to the intrigue. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025–2026, have already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle. In his view, the rise in Bitcoin dominance will occur at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing extremely selectively. This does not mean the end of altcoins, but rather points to consolidation and accumulation by large players.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid adheres to a more bearish scenario. He believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, a massive fiat money issuance is necessary, which he expects no earlier than 2028–2029.
My expert assessment: The divergence between spot selling pressure and the season index is a powerful bullish signal. The 15-month sell-off has exhausted sellers, and the index approaching the threshold value indicates that the market is ready for a reversal. However, as analyst Alphractal rightly noted, this season will be extremely selective. Investors should prepare for capital to flow not into all altcoins indiscriminately, but only into projects with strong fundamentals and real demand. The "rising tide" will lift not all boats, but only the most reliable ones.