CryptoQuant indicators signal the imminent start of altcoin season: selling pressure has reached 2020 lows.
The altcoin market is experiencing a unique moment: selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is approaching a critical threshold historically preceding a massive capital shift from Bitcoin and Ethereum. These two seemingly contradictory signals paint an extremely interesting picture for analysts.
Selling Pressure: A Five-Year Low and a 15-Month Anomaly
A key CryptoQuant indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has plummeted to its lowest levels since 2020. This means sellers have dominated spot markets for an extended period, with net selling, according to the platform, lasting 15 consecutive months. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech emphasizes: "This isn't about a drawdown. We are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." Such extreme seller exhaustion often serves as a precursor to a trend reversal.
Altcoin Season Index: On the Verge of Awakening
In parallel, another CryptoQuant indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — stands at 18.48. Historically, a breakout above the 20 level signals the start of a full-fledged "altcoin season," when capital begins to actively flow from dominant coins into riskier assets. The current value suggests the market is in an accumulation phase and preparing for a surge, but has not yet crossed the key threshold.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: From Selective Growth to Waiting for 2028
Experts are divided on the likely scenario. João Wedson, founder of Alphractal, believes that many altcoins, which significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will avoid new all-time lows. According to him, the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts a selective capital flow: "The rise in Bitcoin dominance will likely come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins. This doesn't mean all altcoins will disappear. Rather, capital will flow very selectively."
In contrast, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, requires large-scale monetary issuance, which is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My view: The paradox of the current situation is that extreme selling pressure, on one hand, clears the market of weak hands, while on the other, it creates the conditions for a powerful, but likely very selective, rally. An altcoin season, if it begins, will fundamentally differ from previous ones: only projects with real liquidity and fundamental value will benefit, while the vast majority of "junk" tokens may never see new highs.