Crypto news

Mining in Russia has finally come out of the shadows. It is no longer a gray area, but a fully legal business with transparent rules of the game. Attempts to conceal cryptocurrency mining are doomed to fail due to the colossal energy consumption that cannot be disguised.

Regulation and Taxes: New Rules of the Game

The basic law regulating the industry came into force at the end of 2024. Organizations can now mine coins officially after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6000 kWh has been set, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. However, as practice shows, many miners have not submitted documents due to the complex bureaucratic procedure.

Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see position. Market participants did not feel any real harsh sanctions. Punishments were mainly for illegal connections to electrical grids. Now the situation is changing: news of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry.

Paradoxically, the new rules benefit the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off the cost of equipment in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can spread this process over 24 months or more.

Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, there will effectively be no income tax for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

It is Impossible to Hide Mining

It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. This process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly record anomalous indicators. For this reason, detecting gray sites is solely a matter of time. Large players have long since legalized, as they know how to operate within the legal framework.

Bitcoin: Cycle Target — $180–250 Thousand

In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, which includes over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes a regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall. However, on October 11, 2025, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year.

At the same time, the final price targets remained the same. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum level is $180 thousand, and the average level is fixed at $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.

Probability of an Extreme Scenario

I have described in detail a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be shut down in one day. Due to the built-in rule of difficulty adjustment, which occurs once every 2016 blocks, the generation time for new blocks will be greatly extended. This will trigger an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.

My expert opinion: The legalization of mining in Russia is not just a change of status, but a strategic step that will allow the industry to attract investment and reduce risks. However, the key driver remains Bitcoin itself, and its fundamental indicators suggest that the current cycle has not yet reached its peak.