Altcoin selling pressure at its lowest since 2020: two CryptoQuant indicators paint different pictures
The altcoin market is experiencing a unique moment. Selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020, and the Altcoin Season Index has come close to the threshold that historically precedes the start of a major rally. However, it's not all clear-cut: a second key indicator from CryptoQuant shows that net sales of assets outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months.
Two indicators from CryptoQuant paint a contrasting picture. On one hand, the metric tracking the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sales on spot exchanges have consistently "outweighed" purchases for a long time. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator almost returned to zero, but then turned downward again and continued to decline in the following months.
On the other hand, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index holds at 18.48. Historically, altcoin season "awakens" when the value rises above 20. That is, the market has not yet reached the threshold but is in close proximity to it. This is a classic consolidation signal ahead of a potential capital shift.
Analysts are divided in their opinions
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: at this stage, many exit projects, while large holders quietly continue to accumulate assets. "The increase in Bitcoin's dominance will likely come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins. This does not mean that all altcoins will disappear. Rather, capital will flow very selectively," the expert noted.
At the same time, trader Crypto Kid is bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario can be expected closer to 2028 or 2029.
My view: the divergence of the two indicators is not a mistake but a reflection of structural changes. The altcoin market is no longer monolithic: capital is concentrating around strong projects with real liquidity, while "junk" coins are losing interest. The altcoin season will likely not be universal but targeted—for a small group of assets capable of attracting institutional interest.