Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows — is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to a five-year low — levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, net selling of assets outside the top two has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months, indicating a prolonged period of position-taking.
Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint, at first glance, an opposing picture. However, upon closer inspection, they point to the same bifurcation point: the market is preparing for a reversal.
Altcoin Season Index: A Historical Precedent
The first indicator is the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH). Its drop to 2020 levels suggests that sellers are completely exhausted. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly reached zero, but then turned negative again and continued to decline. Analysts from the platform note: "We are not seeing a drawdown, but 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." This is an extreme value that has historically preceded a trend change.
The second indicator — the Altcoin Season Index over a 180-day period — currently stands at 18.48. To trigger a full-fledged altcoin season, the threshold of 20 points must be crossed. The market has not yet reached this level, but the index's trajectory is closely approaching values that in the past marked the beginning of a massive capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Analyst Opinions: Consensus or Discord?
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to his assessment, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, and capital flow will become highly selective — not all projects will survive.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that for a true altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, a massive fiat money issuance is needed, which cannot be expected before 2028–2029.
My Expertise: I lean towards the view that we are on the verge of a structural shift. Historically extreme seller exhaustion on the spot market (a low since 2020) and the Altcoin Season Index approaching threshold values are a classic recipe for a reversal. However, unlike past cycles, the current market has become more mature and less dependent on retail liquidity. We will likely see not a universal "altseason," but a targeted capital flow into the most fundamentally strong projects. Those holding "junk" coins risk being left behind.