Mining in Russia: emerged from the shadows and became a transparent business
Mining in Russia has finally ceased to be a gray area. It is now a legal and transparent business with clear rules. Hiding cryptocurrency mining from the state is practically impossible — the colossal electricity consumption gives away any illegal farm immediately.
The basic law regulating the industry came into effect at the end of 2024. Legal entities were allowed to mine coins officially after being entered into a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh was set, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. However, many miners have still not submitted documents — the bureaucratic procedure proved too complex to understand.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, not applying strict sanctions. Penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. However, the situation is now changing: news of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry. At the same time, the law allows avoiding severe punishment if unpaid taxes are fully compensated. A lenient approach toward small entrepreneurs is a reasonable path, similar to utility debts, where a warning is issued first, and account blocking remains a last resort.
Paradoxically, the new rules benefit the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now, the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off the cost of equipment in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more. Expenses for electricity, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime are officially included in costs. According to my calculations, there will effectively be no income tax for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
Hiding mining is impossible
Hiding a crypto farm is technically unrealistic. This process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators see their electricity bills skyrocket instantly, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal readings. Detecting gray areas is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized because they know how to operate within the legal framework.
Bitcoin: cycle target — $180–250 thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, politicians' statements, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty adjustments and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the growth start had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall, but on October 11, 2025, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year. However, the final price targets remained the same. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average level is fixed at $250 thousand. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Probability of an extreme scenario
There is also a "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could shut down in a single day. Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, which occurs every 2,016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a disaster and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators as events unfold.
Expert opinion: The Russian mining market is going through a painful but necessary stage of legalization. Those who fail to adapt to the new realities risk not only losing their business but also facing significant legal problems. Transparency is the only path to long-term sustainability.