Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows: altcoin season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending powerful signals that experienced analysts compare to the harbingers of a true altcoin season. Selling pressure on altcoins on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. Meanwhile, another key indicator shows net selling of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, which has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months.
Two opposing signals from CryptoQuant
The CryptoQuant platform records a paradoxical yet extremely important picture. The 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching historical values that traditionally precede the start of active altcoin growth. This metric tracks the cumulative difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes, excluding BTC and ETH. Its drop to a low not seen since 2020 clearly indicates that selling on spot exchanges has long been "outweighing" buying.
The indicator nearly returned to zero at the start of 2025, then reversed downward again and continued its decline in the following months. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech notes, "This isn't about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." This means the market is in a phase of extreme accumulation by large players, who are quietly buying up assets while retail investors panic.
The 180-day Altcoin Season Index holds at 18.48. According to the analyst, the altcoin season "comes to life" when the value rises above 20. That is, the market has not yet reached the threshold: it is only preparing for a capital rotation.
Analysts' opinions diverge
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. In his view, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: at this stage, many exit projects, while large holders quietly continue to accumulate assets. "The rise in Bitcoin dominance will likely come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins. This does not mean all altcoins will disappear. Rather, we can expect capital to flow very selectively," the expert noted.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario can be expected closer to 2028 or 2029.
My expert conclusion: Historically, periods of maximum altcoin selling pressure have coincided with trend reversal points. The current levels of the Altcoin Season Index and the 15-month streak of net selling are classic "accumulation bowls." Despite analysts' disagreements, I lean toward the view that we are on the verge of a selective but powerful altcoin rally. Investors should closely monitor projects with strong fundamentals—they will be the beneficiaries of the upcoming capital rotation.