Mining in Russia: a transparent business that cannot be hidden
Cryptocurrency mining in Russia has finally moved from the gray zone to the category of legal and regulated activities. Attempts to mine in the shadows are doomed to fail — colossal energy consumption makes such operations absolutely visible to regulatory authorities.
Regulation: tax benefits and tighter control
The basic law regulating the industry came into effect at the end of 2024. Legal entities are now allowed to officially engage in mining after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh has been set, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. However, as practice shows, many private miners face bureaucratic difficulties and have still not submitted the necessary documents.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, not applying harsh sanctions. The main penalties concerned illegal connections to power grids. The situation is now changing: news of large fines and even criminal cases is becoming more frequent, putting serious pressure on the industry.
At the same time, in my assessment, the law is paradoxically beneficial to market participants themselves. Previously, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more. Expenses for electricity, hosting construction, repairs, and forced downtime are officially included in costs. According to my calculations, in the first two years, the profit tax will effectively be zero. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks much more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom due to illegal activities.
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. The mining process creates a colossal and constant load on the power grid. Illegal miners see their electricity bills skyrocket instantly, and unauthorized connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly record abnormal readings. Detecting gray sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, understanding that working within the legal framework is much safer and more profitable.
Bitcoin: cycle target range — $180–250 thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators, not information noise or political statements. Bitcoin has a powerful base, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the growth start had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall, but on October 11, 2025, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026, rather than at the end of last year.
At the same time, the final price targets remain the same. My mathematical model indicates a minimum level of $180 thousand and an average level of $250 thousand. This mark should become the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Probability of an extreme scenario: "death spiral"
I also analyzed a possible negative scenario in detail. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be shut down in one day. Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, which occurs once every 2016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will be greatly extended. This will trigger an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States — such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.
Expert opinion: The Russian mining market is going through an inevitable phase of legalization. Those who adapt to the new rules and use tax preferences will gain a significant competitive advantage. Ignoring the law under conditions of total transparency in energy consumption is a path to losing your business.