The selling pressure on altcoins has plummeted to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The cryptocurrency market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on altcoins on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low — levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, according to an alternative indicator, net sales of assets excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This divergence requires close analysis.
Two key indicators from the CryptoQuant platform paint polar pictures. The Altcoin Season Index with a 180-day window is currently at 18.48. Historically, when this indicator rises above 20, the market enters a phase of active capital rotation from BTC and ETH into altcoins. We are one step away from this threshold.
Opposing Signals: Sales vs. Accumulation
The indicator measuring the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has dropped to its lowest since 2020. This suggests that sellers have dominated the spot market for a long time. However, analysts note that this is not necessarily a bearish signal. "This is not about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges," emphasizes one CryptoQuant expert.
The paradox is that the Altcoin Season Index itself, on the contrary, is approaching the "awakening" zone. When it crosses the 20 mark, the market historically enters an altseason phase. Currently, the index stands at 18.48, indicating that capital is only just preparing for a rotation.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: Bears vs. Realists
The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that a true altcoin season will require large-scale monetary issuance, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario cannot be expected before 2028–2029.
My analysis: The current divergence between extremely low selling pressure and the altcoin season index approaching its threshold is a classic sign of accumulation. The market is likely in a phase of "capitulation" by weak hands, after which a powerful reversal historically follows. However, given macroeconomic uncertainty and the lack of fresh liquidity, the start of a full-fledged altseason may be delayed, but its fundamental prerequisites are already being laid right now.