Crypto news

The era of "gray" mining in Russia has come to an end. With the introduction of clear legislation, cryptocurrency mining is transforming from an underground craft into a full-fledged, transparent business. Attempts to conceal this activity from the state are doomed to fail — the energy footprint left by each farm is far too noticeable.

The key law regulating the industry came into force at the end of 2024. Legal entities can now legally engage in mining after being entered into a special register. For individuals, clear limits have been set — up to 6,000 kWh per month — along with mandatory tax reporting. However, as practice shows, many private miners have faced bureaucratic difficulties and have not submitted the necessary documents.

Tax Amnesty and Favorable Conditions

Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, refraining from imposing harsh sanctions. The main complaints were only about illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing: news reports increasingly mention large fines and even criminal cases, which has a sobering effect on market participants.

It is important to understand: the law provides an opportunity to avoid severe punishment if unpaid taxes are fully compensated. There is a high probability of a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs, similar to utility debts, where warnings are issued first and account blocking remains a last resort.

Paradoxically, the new rules have proven beneficial for the players themselves. Previously, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now, the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Moreover, equipment is allowed to be depreciated:

• Individuals can write off the cost of equipment within one reporting period.
• Legal entities and individual entrepreneurs have the right to extend this process over 24 months or more.

Expenses officially include costs for electricity, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime. According to expert estimates, the income tax will effectively be zero in the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks far more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

Technical Impossibility to Hide

It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. Mining creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal readings. The detection of "gray" sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, as they know how and want to operate within the legal framework.

Bitcoin: Cycle Target — $180–250 Thousand

In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators, not information noise or statements from politicians. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty adjustments and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts regarding the timing of the growth start had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026, rather than at the end of last year.

At the same time, the final price targets remained unchanged. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average level is fixed at $250 thousand. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.

Probability of an Extreme Scenario

There is also a risk of a "death spiral" scenario developing. If, by the time of the halving, the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could shut down in a single day. Due to the built-in rule for difficulty adjustment, which occurs every 2,016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States, which increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.

Expert Opinion: The Russian mining market is entering a new era. Legalization and transparent tax conditions are a powerful incentive for the arrival of large capital and the development of the industry. However, players need to be prepared for strict control and rigorous reporting. Those who do not adapt will be forced to leave the market.