Altcoin selling pressure has hit 2020 lows: seasonal index signals an imminent reversal
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, an indicator tracking capital flow from Bitcoin and Ethereum has come very close to historical thresholds that preceded the start of a full-fledged altcoin season.
Spot Pressure: A Five-Year Low
The key metric that caught my attention is the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH). According to data from the analytical platform CryptoQuant, this indicator has plummeted to its lowest level since 2020. This means that sellers have dominated the spot markets for an extended period, with net selling pressure persisting for 15 consecutive months. An analyst under the pseudonym IT Tech emphasizes that this is not a temporary dip but a prolonged trend, where selling volumes consistently exceed buying volumes.
Altcoin Season Index: On the Verge of Awakening
However, there is another side to the coin. The 180-day Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant, on the contrary, shows the opposite dynamic. Its current value is 18.48, critically close to the 20-point threshold. Historically, crossing this mark has served as a trigger for the start of active capital flow into altcoins. The market is essentially in an accumulation phase—selling pressure is drying up, and the indicator is poised for a reversal.
Analyst Opinions: Consolidation or a New Cycle?
Experts are divided on the timing and nature of the upcoming movement. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025–2026, have already avoided new all-time lows. In his assessment, the market has entered a "depressive" phase of the cycle, where small players exit while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts a selective capital flow into the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than a broad rally across all coins.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He points out that for a full-fledged altcoin season similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, a massive liquidity injection is needed, which is unlikely to occur before 2028–2029.
My analysis: Converging signals—a record drop in selling pressure and the altcoin season index approaching a critical threshold—create the conditions for a powerful but highly selective rally. The market will not be generous to all projects. Capital is likely to concentrate on assets with strong fundamentals and real adoption. For investors, it is now critically important to carefully select assets rather than hoping for a broad upswing.