Mining in Russia: from the gray zone to a transparent industry — why hiding is no longer profitable
Russian mining has finally come out of the shadows. With the adoption of the basic law at the end of 2024, the industry has received clear rules of the game. It is no longer an underground enterprise, but a full-fledged legal business. However, as practice shows, many market participants still do not realize the main thing: hiding cryptocurrency mining is technically impossible, and tax incentives make legalization not just safe, but also extremely profitable.
The legislation has established clear frameworks. Legal entities can mine coins only after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh has been introduced, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. The paradox of the situation is that many solo miners have not submitted documents, facing complex bureaucracy. But the state has taken a wait-and-see approach, punishing mainly for illegal connections to networks. Now the tension is rising — news of large fines and criminal cases is already frightening the industry.
Tax reform: worth the effort
The key point that many overlook is the radical change in the tax regime. Previously, the fiscal burden was applied to the entire amount from the sale of the digital asset. Now, only net profit is taxed. Moreover, equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more.
Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, this means that for many, the income tax for the first two years will be effectively zero. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks much more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom. Legalization is not just about following the law; it is sound financial management.
Why is "gray" mining doomed?
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. Mining creates a colossal, constant load on the power grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and unauthorized connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies and energy suppliers instantly record abnormal indicators. Detecting "gray" sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long legalized because they know how to work within the legal framework. It is time for small players to understand: playing hide-and-seek with the state is a path to ruin, not profit.
My analysis shows that the Russian mining market is on the verge of consolidation. Those who do not legalize in the coming months risk being left out. Energy suppliers are tightening control, and tax authorities are beginning real inspections. In this situation, a lenient approach to small entrepreneurs is a reasonable strategy, but it will not last forever.
Bitcoin: cycle target $180–250 thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, politicians' statements, technical analysis, and geopolitics are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the mining cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year. At the same time, my final price targets remained the same. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average figure is set at $250 thousand. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward halving.
My expert opinion: Russian mining is entering a new era. Legalization is not a burden, but a competitive advantage. Those who adapt first will gain access to cheap energy, tax benefits, and institutional capital. Ignoring these changes is a strategic mistake that could cost the business.