Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows — altcoin season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending powerful signals that have historically preceded the start of a massive rally. Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint a picture that is both frightening and encouraging. Selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to an absolute low not seen since 2020, and the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching the threshold of 20 points, which traditionally triggers an "altseason."
Sellers Exhausted: A Five-Year Low
The indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has plummeted to levels not observed since 2020. This means that sellers on spot markets have practically exhausted their potential. Moreover, net selling of altcoins outside of BTC and ETH has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months — an unprecedented duration. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech notes, we are witnessing not just a decline, but a structural exhaustion of sellers.
Interestingly, at the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly returned to zero, but then reversed downward again and continued its decline in subsequent months. This suggests that the market is in a phase of deep depression, where weak hands are leaving projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets.
Altcoin Season Index: On the Verge of a Breakout
The second indicator — the Altcoin Season Index — shows the opposite dynamic. It currently stands at 18.48, just 1.5 points below the critical level of 20. Historically, when the index crosses this mark, a massive capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins begins. The market has not yet reached the threshold but is in close proximity to it.
Analyst Opinions: From Optimism to Caution
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, and capital will begin to flow very selectively — into the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season would require massive monetary issuance, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his estimation, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: I lean toward the view that we are in the final accumulation phase. The five-year low in selling pressure is a classic reversal signal. Even without massive issuance, the exhaustion of sellers and the index's proximity to the threshold create ideal conditions for the start of a selective but powerful rally in altcoins. The question is not whether the season will happen, but which assets the "whales" will choose.