Mining in Russia: The shadow era is over — legalization dictates new rules of the game
Russian mining has finally emerged from the shadows. Today it is a transparent business with clear rules, and attempts to conceal cryptocurrency mining are doomed to fail due to colossal energy consumption.
The basic law regulating the industry came into force at the end of 2024. Legal entities gained the right to official mining after being included in a special registry. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh per month has been set, along with a requirement to report to the tax service. However, as practice shows, many private miners face bureaucratic difficulties and do not file declarations.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, not applying harsh sanctions. Penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing: news of large fines and criminal cases is already stirring up the industry.
Tax regime: more favorable than it seems
Paradoxically, the new rules have turned out to be beneficial for the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of the digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Moreover, equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more.
Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, the income tax will effectively be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
It is impossible to hide mining
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. This process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal indicators. For this reason, detecting gray-area operations is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, as they know how to operate within the legal framework.
Bitcoin: cycle target — $180–250 thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, politicians' statements, and technical analysis are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, which includes over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market.
Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor. Although forecasts for the start of the bull run had to be adjusted — the market broke classic patterns on October 11, 2025, and the bottom was found in early 2026 — the final price targets remain the same. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average figure is set at $250 thousand. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next halving.
Extreme scenario: "death spiral"
There is also a possibility of a negative scenario. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be shut down in a single day. Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger a cascading exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes.
However, in my opinion, large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I will adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.
Expert opinion: The legalization of mining in Russia is not just about tightening control, but about creating a foundation for a civilized market. Tax incentives and the ability to depreciate equipment make white business not only safe but also more profitable than the gray zone. Players who have not yet legalized should hurry: the time of "free" mining is rapidly running out.