Two faces of the market: altcoin selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows, but the season index is preparing for a breakout
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet highly intriguing signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached levels not seen since 2020. On the other, CryptoQuant's key altcoin season index is closely approaching historical threshold levels that have traditionally preceded the start of a massive rally.
Let's break down this data. The indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has plummeted to a five-year low. This means sellers have dominated buyers on spot markets for 15 consecutive months. Such a prolonged period of net selling is unprecedented, indicating a deep phase of capitulation and asset redistribution.
However, the Altcoin Season Index (180-day) paints a completely different picture. Its current value stands at 18.48, critically close to the historical threshold of 20 points. In the past, surpassing this mark has invariably served as a trigger for the start of an active altseason phase. The market is essentially frozen on the brink: capital has not yet flowed into altcoins en masse, but all the prerequisites for this are already in place.
Analysts are divided: selective growth or a repeat of 2021?
The question of the timing and nature of the upcoming movement remains open. Some experts, particularly Alphractal founder João Wedson, believe that many altcoins, which significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already reached their local "bottoms" and will not update their historical lows. He predicts a phase of "depression" where small investors will exit projects while large players quietly accumulate assets. In his view, the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will occur extremely selectively, driven by the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than by all coins indiscriminately.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid holds a more cautious, bearish view. He is convinced that for a true, comprehensive altcoin season similar to the 2020-2021 cycle, a massive fiat money issuance comparable to the stimulus measures of those years is necessary. According to his estimates, such a scenario may not materialize until 2028-2029.
My expert assessment: The current situation is a classic example of accumulation before a powerful move. Historically, extreme selling pressure on altcoins coupled with the altcoin season index approaching key levels has almost always preceded a sharp reversal. I lean towards the view that we are on the verge of a selective but strong altseason, where capital will flow into projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals. Investors should prepare for volatility but not lose sight of this powerful signal.