The altcoin index is at 2020 lows: is the market preparing for a reversal?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. Analyzing on-chain metrics data, I see that selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant over 180 days is approaching historical threshold levels that traditionally precede the start of an active altcoin rally.
Two opposing signals from CryptoQuant
The first indicator tracks the cumulative difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes on spot markets. Its current drop to a 2020 low is not just a number. It is direct evidence that sellers on spot markets are exhausted. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator almost reached zero, then fell again, continuing the downward trend in the following months. CryptoQuant analysts note that we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges. This is an extremely long period of loss-taking and disappointment among altcoin holders.
The second indicator — the Altcoin Season Index — shows the opposite picture. It is currently at 18.48. Historically, when this index rises above 20, the market enters an active altcoin season phase. We are literally one step away from this threshold. Capital has not yet begun to flow en masse from Bitcoin to altcoins, but preparations for this process, judging by the data, are already complete.
Analysts are divided: what's next?
There is no consensus among experts on exactly how the situation will unfold. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid updating their historical lows. According to his assessment, a significant part of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
However, there is also a more cautious stance. Trader Crypto Kid believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, a massive money issuance is necessary. In his opinion, such a scenario is possible no earlier than 2028–2029.
My analysis: I lean towards the view that the current extreme levels of selling pressure are a classic sign of capitulation and bottom formation. 15 months of net selling is too long a period not to trigger a reversal. The market is undoubtedly preparing for a trend change. However, given macroeconomic uncertainty and the lack of new liquidity drivers, the altcoin season is unlikely to be explosive and all-encompassing as in the past. Most likely, we will see selective and structural growth in the strongest projects, rather than an unrestrained rally of all "coins." There is potential for upward movement, but investors should prepare for a more volatile and complex market than in 2021.