Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows: Is alt season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending mixed signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to a five-year low—a level last seen in 2020. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is nearing a historical threshold that traditionally precedes a trend reversal and the start of a massive capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Let's break down what's really happening. Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint, at first glance, opposing pictures, but upon detailed analysis, they point to the same thing: the market is ripe for a phase change.
First Signal: Selling Pressure at a 5-Year Low
The metric tracking the aggregate difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has plummeted to levels last seen in 2020. This means sellers on spot markets have nearly exhausted their potential. Moreover, analysts highlight that we are witnessing 15 consecutive months of net selling—an unprecedented period that is likely coming to an end.
It's important to understand: this is not about a short-term dip. This is a structural exhaustion of sellers. When selling pressure drops to such extreme levels, the market becomes highly sensitive to any surge in buying demand.
Second Signal: Altcoin Season Index Nears Threshold
Simultaneously, the Altcoin Season Index (180-day) stands at 18.48. Historically, a value above 20 signals the start of a full-fledged altcoin season. We are literally one step away from this threshold. The indicator shows that capital is only preparing for a shift, but the mechanism is already in motion.
Analyst Opinions Are Divided, But the Trend is Clear
There is no consensus among experts on the timing. Some, like the founder of Alphractal, believe many altcoins have already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle. In their view, large holders are quietly accumulating assets while retail investors exit projects. The rise in Bitcoin dominance will likely come at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, but this does not mean the end of the entire alt market—capital will flow selectively.
Others, such as trader Crypto Kid, hold a bearish scenario and believe a full altseason requires massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020-2021 cycle. According to his estimates, such a scenario is possible closer to 2028-2029.
My expert opinion: I lean towards the view that we are on the verge of a significant, but selective altcoin season. The drop in selling pressure to 2020 lows is too powerful a technical signal to ignore. The market has been cleansed of weak hands. However, unlike previous cycles, the growth will not be universal but focused on projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals. Investors should prepare for high volatility and careful asset selection.