Final phase of capitulation: Bitcoin approaches the bottom, but weak hands have already left the market
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase of loss realization, but the structure of the current capitulation is fundamentally different from the first major wave of decline. My on-chain indicators show: the bulk of panicked sellers have likely already exited, and the current wave of stress appears significantly weaker than the previous one.
Analysis of the 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss metric reveals an important pattern. During the first wave of selling, the market absorbed approximately 400,000 BTC in realized losses. Now, at similar price levels, this figure stands at only about 234,000 BTC. This is direct evidence that a significant portion of panic supply has already left the market. The same price zones no longer trigger capitulation of the same magnitude.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator confirms this picture. Selling pressure persists, but it does not reach the extreme values characteristic of previous capitulations. Historically, such a structure forms when the market has already "washed out" the majority of weak holders but still needs a final test. Essentially, we are observing a classic "late stage of stress."
The bottom is near, but not confirmed
The annual net realized profit adds a broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this metric went much deeper into the loss zone. Today, the metric is negative but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms. This means the market has not yet undergone the final "shakeout."
The key question now: can Bitcoin stabilize with further declines in losses, or will another wave of decline be needed to complete the capitulation? If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If the BTC price falls and realized losses spike again, the market will enter that final shakeout before the bottom.
My conclusion: The market is in a late stage of capitulation, but the final bottom is not yet confirmed. Weak hands have left, but a confident reversal requires either a rise in demand or another panic impulse that will finally "shake out" the remaining sellers. Monitor the dynamics of realized losses — this is the best indicator of the market's readiness for a reversal.