Bitcoin on the verge of a reversal: capitulation of weak hands is coming to an end
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase of loss realization, but the structure of the current capitulation is fundamentally different from what we observed at the beginning of the year. As on-chain metrics show, the bulk of panicked sellers have likely already left the market, and the current wave of stress appears noticeably weaker than the previous one.
The market is in a late stage of stress: weak holders have mostly been "washed out," the intensity of realized losses is decreasing, but there is no final confirmation of a bottom yet. This is a classic pattern of seller exhaustion, which often precedes a trend reversal.
Metrics Indicate Exhaustion
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that the current wave of losses is noticeable, but it is significantly smaller than during the first sell-off of the year. At that time, the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC in realized losses, while now, at similar price levels, this figure is closer to 234,000 BTC.
This divergence is a key signal. It indicates that the marginal seller is becoming weaker in volume: a significant portion of panicked supply appears to have already left the market during the first decline. In other words, the same price zone no longer triggers the same level of capitulation.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator confirms the same idea. Seller pressure persists, but it has not yet reached the extreme values typical of past capitulations. Historically, such a structure appears when the market has already "washed out" most weak holders, but still needs a final test.
The Bottom is Near, But No Final Confirmation
The annual net realized profit/loss indicator adds broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms were formed when this metric went much deeper into the loss zone. Today, the metric is negative, but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize as losses continue to decline, or whether another wave of decline will be needed to complete the capitulation. If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If the BTC price falls and realized losses spike again, the market may enter that final shakeout before the bottom.
My opinion: The market is showing all the signs of a late-stage bear cycle. "Weak hands" are indeed exiting, and seller pressure is weakening. However, the absence of a historical extreme in annual realized profit/loss leaves room for maneuver — the final bottom can only be confirmed by time and price stabilization near current levels. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but not give in to panic.