Bitcoin in the final stage of capitulation: weak hands have left the market, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase of loss realization, but the structure of the current capitulation differs significantly from what we observed at the beginning of the year. My analysis of on-chain metrics shows that the main wave of panic sellers has likely already been exhausted. The intensity of realized losses is decreasing, indicating the depletion of "weak hands."
Realized Loss Metrics: Comparing Waves
The key indicator is the 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss. The current wave of losses is noticeable, but it is significantly weaker than the first major sell-off of 2024. At that time, the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC in realized losses. Now, at similar price levels, this figure stands at approximately 234,000 BTC.
This divergence is critically important. It suggests that the marginal seller is becoming weaker in volume. A significant portion of panic supply has already left the market during the first decline. In other words, the same price zone no longer triggers capitulation of the same magnitude.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator confirms this conclusion. Selling pressure persists, but it has not yet reached the extreme values typical of past capitulations. Historically, such a structure appears when the market has already "washed out" most weak holders but still needs a final test.
The Bottom Is Near, But No Final Confirmation Yet
The annual net realized profit/loss metric adds broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this figure went much deeper into loss territory. Today, the metric is negative, but it has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
The key question now is: can Bitcoin stabilize as losses continue to decline, or will another wave of decline be needed to complete the capitulation? If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If the BTC price drops and realized losses spike again, the market may enter that final shakeout before the bottom.
My conclusion: The market is in a late stage of stress, and "weak hands" have been largely washed out. However, the absence of a historical extreme in annual realized profit/loss makes me remain cautious. A full-fledged bottom will likely only be confirmed after a sharp spike in losses followed by rapid price consolidation.