Bitcoin in the final stage of capitulation: weak hands have left the market, but the bottom is not yet confirmed
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase of loss realization, but the structure of the current capitulation differs significantly from the first major wave of decline. The bulk of panicked sellers has likely already left the market, and the current wave of stress appears much weaker than the previous one.
Analysis of on-chain metrics indicates that the market is in a late stage of stress: weak holders have largely been "washed out," the intensity of realized losses is decreasing, but there is no final confirmation of a bottom yet.
What Realized Loss Metrics Say
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows a noticeable but diminishing wave of losses. At similar price levels, the current figure is approximately 234,000 BTC, whereas during the first sell-off of the year, the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC in realized losses.
This discrepancy is extremely important. It indicates that a significant portion of panic supply has already left the market during the first decline. The same price zone no longer triggers capitulation of the same intensity—the marginal seller is becoming weaker in volume.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta metric confirms this idea. Selling pressure persists but has not yet reached the extreme levels characteristic of past capitulations. Historically, such a structure appears when the market has already "washed out" most weak holders but still needs a final test.
The Bottom Is Near, but No Final Confirmation Yet
The annual net realized profit/loss metric adds broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this sum went much deeper into loss territory. Today, the metric is negative but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize as losses further decline, or whether another wave of decline is needed to complete the capitulation. If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If the BTC price falls and realized losses spike again, the market may enter that final shakeout before the bottom.
My expert opinion: The market is showing classic signs of a mature correction phase. Weak hands have indeed exited, and selling pressure is weakening. However, the absence of a historical extreme in annual realized profit/loss leaves room for uncertainty. We will likely see either sideways consolidation with a gradual fading of losses, or one final sharp sell-off that forms the ultimate bottom. Investors should be prepared for both scenarios.