Final sale or false bottom? Bitcoin enters the final phase of capitulation
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase of loss realization, but its structure differs significantly from the first major wave of decline. Analyzing on-chain data, I see that the bulk of panicked sellers have likely already left the market. The current capitulation appears considerably weaker than the previous one, which may indicate an approaching bottom, but does not guarantee it.
What Realized Loss Metrics Indicate
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows that the current wave of losses is noticeable, but smaller than during the first sell-off of the year. At that time, the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC in realized losses. Now, at similar price levels, this figure stands at approximately 234,000 BTC.
This divergence is a key signal. The marginal seller is becoming weaker in volume: a significant portion of panic supply has already left the market during the first decline. In other words, the same price zone no longer triggers capitulation of the same magnitude. Buyers who have held firm are becoming "tougher nuts to crack."
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta metric confirms this idea. Selling pressure persists, but has not yet reached the extreme levels characteristic of past capitulations. Historically, such a structure appears when the market has already "washed out" most weak holders, but still needs a final test.
Bottom is Near, but Final Confirmation is Lacking
The annual Net Realized Profit/Loss metric adds a broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this figure went much deeper into loss territory. Today, the metric is negative, but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
This does not mean that the BTC price is bound to crash. Rather, it suggests that the market is likely in a late stage of stress. Weak holders are exiting, the intensity of losses is fading, but final confirmation is still absent.
My expert view: The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize as losses continue to decline, or whether another wave of decline is needed to complete the capitulation. If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this would be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If the BTC price falls and realized losses spike again, the market may enter that final shakeout before the bottom. I lean toward the first scenario, but the market is always ready to spring a surprise.