Bitcoin in the final stage of capitulation: weak hands have left the market, but the bottom is not yet confirmed
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a critical phase of loss realization, but its structure is fundamentally different from the first major wave of decline this year. As my on-chain data analysis shows, the bulk of panic sellers have likely already left the market, and the current capitulation appears significantly weaker than the previous one.
What Realized Loss Metrics Indicate
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows that the current wave of losses is noticeable, but it is much smaller than during the first sell-off of the year. At that time, the market absorbed approximately 400,000 BTC in realized losses, whereas now, at similar price levels, this figure is closer to 234,000 BTC.
This divergence is extremely important. It indicates that the marginal seller is becoming weaker in volume: a significant portion of panic supply appears to have already left the market during the first decline. In other words, the same price zone no longer triggers capitulation of the same magnitude.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator confirms the same idea. Selling pressure persists, but it has not yet reached the extreme values characteristic of past capitulations. Historically, such a structure emerges when the market has already "washed out" most weak holders but still requires a final test.
The Bottom is Near, but Final Confirmation is Lacking
The annual Net Realized Profit/Loss metric adds broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this figure went much deeper into loss territory. Today, the metric is negative but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
It is important to emphasize: this does not mean that the BTC price is bound to collapse. The point is that the market is likely in a late stage of stress. Weak holders are exiting, the intensity of losses is fading, but final confirmation is still absent.
The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize as losses continue to decline, or whether another wave of decline will be needed to complete the capitulation. If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If the BTC price falls and realized losses spike again, the market may enter that final shakeout before the bottom.
My expert opinion: The market is transitioning into a zone where each subsequent attempt at a decline will meet increasingly strong demand from "smart money." Investors who survived the first wave have already adapted, and forming a new bottom will likely require not so much depth of decline as time for consolidation. Weak hands have exited — now it is up to institutions and long-term holders to determine the next trend.