Weak hands have left the market: bitcoin in the final phase of capitulation
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a decisive phase of loss realization, yet the structure of the current capitulation is fundamentally different from what we observed at the beginning of the year. As on-chain analytics data shows, the key wave of panic sellers has likely already exhausted itself. The market has moved into a late stage of stress, where weak holders have been largely "washed out," and the intensity of realized losses is noticeably decreasing.
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss metric confirms this thesis. The current wave of losses, while significant, is considerably smaller than the first major sell-off of the year. If at the start of 2025 the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC in realized losses, now, at similar price levels, this figure stands at approximately 234,000 BTC. This is a fundamental divergence: the same price zone no longer triggers the same depth of capitulation. A significant portion of panic supply has already left the market during the first wave of decline.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator (the difference between buyer and seller pressure) only reinforces this picture. Seller pressure persists, but its intensity is far from the extreme values characteristic of previous capitulations. Historically, such a structure emerges when the market has already "washed out" the bulk of weak holders but still needs a final test to confirm the bottom.
Annual Metric: Close, but Not the Finale
A broader context is provided by the annual net realized profit indicator. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this metric went much deeper into loss territory. Today, the metric is negative but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical lows.
The key question now is: can Bitcoin stabilize as losses continue to decline, or will another wave of decline be needed to complete the capitulation? If losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If BTC falls and realized losses spike again, the market may enter that very final "shakeout" before the bottom.
My analysis: The structure of the current capitulation indicates that the bulk of "weak hands" have already exited. However, full confidence in the formation of a bottom will only appear after the price stabilizes above support zones and loss metrics begin to decline steadily. For now, we are in a zone of uncertainty, where each new low is a test of strength for the remaining holders.