Bitcoin on the final stretch of capitulation: weak hands have left the market, but the bottom is not yet confirmed
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase of loss realization, but its structure is fundamentally different from what we observed at the beginning of the year. My analysis of on-chain metrics, particularly the Net Realized Profit/Loss data, indicates that the main wave of panic sellers is already behind us. The current capitulation appears significantly weaker than the previous one, which is a classic sign of seller exhaustion.
Metrics indicate: Selling pressure is easing
The 30-day Net Realized Loss metric shows a noticeable decline. While the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC in realized losses during the first major sell-off of this year, this figure now stands at approximately 234,000 BTC at similar price levels. This discrepancy is critically important. It suggests that a significant portion of panic supply has already left the market during the first crash. The same price zone no longer triggers capitulation of the same magnitude.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator provides additional confirmation. Selling pressure persists, but it does not reach the extreme values characteristic of previous capitulation cycles. Historically, such a pattern emerges when the market has already "washed out" most weak holders but still needs a final test of strength.
The bottom is near, but not declared
The broader context is provided by the Annual Realized Profit/Loss metric. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms formed when this indicator went much deeper into the loss zone. Today, the metric is negative but has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize as losses continue to decline, or whether another wave of decline is needed to complete the capitulation. If realized losses continue to shrink and the price stops making new lows, this will be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. However, if BTC falls, triggering a new surge in realized losses, the market may enter that final shakeout before the true bottom.
My expert assessment: The structure of the current capitulation indicates that we are in the late stages of the process. "Weak hands" have indeed exited. However, until we see a sustained decline in realized losses and price consolidation, I would refrain from declaring a bottom. The market may still surprise us with one last sharp drop, which would serve as the final point.