The market is holding its breath: can Backpack replicate FTX's triumphant path? The BP token has surged 150% in a week.
The explosive 150% surge in the native token BP of the young crypto exchange Backpack over the past week has reignited discussions about a potential shift in leadership in the centralized exchange market. Amid uncertainty over Binance's regulatory status in the European Union, Backpack, which has already obtained a European license, appears as the main contender for the throne left vacant after FTX's collapse. However, as my analysis shows, the path to dominance will be fraught with challenges.
The history of crypto exchanges is cyclical: Mt. Gox (2010), the changing of the guard to Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitfinex (2012-2014), the era of Binance, Bybit, and OKX (2017-2019), and finally, the rise and fall of FTX (2020). The exception to this rule was the last cycle, where the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid changed the rules of the game. Now, based on my observations, Backpack is vying for the role of the "new Binance."
Why Backpack is Still Playing Catch-Up
Backpack's current metrics are quite modest. The daily spot trading volume is around $18 million, and the open interest in perpetual contracts (perps) is about $68 million. For comparison, Hyperliquid's figure reaches $9 billion. Moreover, the native token BP is currently even more liquid on the blockchain than on the exchange itself — a warning sign indicating the speculative nature of the current growth.
I consider tokenized stocks — digital copies of real securities issued on the blockchain — to be Backpack's main trump card. This creates a unique synergy with the Solana network, which lost its former momentum after the memecoin sector crash, and its perpetual contract market never took off. To become the "Nasdaq exchange on the blockchain," Solana desperately needs Backpack's success, which would attract traders, arbitrageurs, and yield seekers to the network. This partnership reminds me of Solana's former close ties with FTX.
Connection to FTX and Unusual Tokenomics
The parallels with FTX are no coincidence. Backpack was founded by former employees of the exchange, and the company bought the European license of the bankrupt platform. Even Backpack's interface, in my opinion, evokes nostalgia for FTX — though this might just be a subjective impression.
Against this backdrop, the BP token has surged 150% over the past seven days, with a market cap of $150 million. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $600 million appears relatively high, but the tokenomics structure here is unusual. At launch, 25% of the total supply was distributed to users via an airdrop — and only these tokens are currently in circulation.
Another 37.5% will be unlocked as milestones are achieved — regulatory approvals and product launches — and these tokens will also go to users. The remaining 37.5% will only be unlocked after an IPO, with a minimum lock-up period of one year. Additionally, if a holder stakes their BP, they can receive a share in the Backpack IPO itself. In my opinion, this is why the FDV here carries less "overhang risk" compared to projects with strictly scheduled unlocks.
My verdict: Backpack possesses a unique set of factors — a regulatory advantage, ties to FTX, and innovative tokenomics. However, to replicate FTX's success, it must not only attract liquidity but also prove it can compete with Hyperliquid and other derivatives market giants. For now, the BP rally appears more speculative than fundamental.