Bitcoin fell to $62,000, but selling pressure is easing: situation analysis
On June 19, the Bitcoin exchange rate corrected to $62,000, losing about 3% in a day. Ethereum also failed to hold, dropping below $1,700. This movement occurs against the backdrop of renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
The key trigger was the decision by US Vice President JD Vance to postpone a trip to Switzerland, which was timed to coincide with the signing of an agreement with Iran. Additional pressure comes from Israel's actions: the IDF struck targets in southern Lebanon, hindering a ceasefire agreement. Notably, despite these events, oil prices continue to fall — popular grades have been declining for a week.
Liquidations and ETF Outflows
Over the past 24 hours, the volume of liquidations in the crypto market reached $460 million, with the majority coming from long positions. Pressure is also increasing due to ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Negative dynamics in these funds have been observed since mid-May, interrupted only by rare and insignificant inflows. On June 18 alone, investors withdrew $90 million from the products.
The Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to 14 points, signaling a state of "extreme fear" in the market.
On-Chain Data Analysis: Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Despite the outwardly grim picture, analysts are beginning to notice positive signals. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha points to a synchronized decline in Bitcoin inflows to Binance and Coinbase exchanges from medium-sized investors (holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC).
"The simultaneous decline is significant because inflows to exchanges are often interpreted as a sign of preparation for selling or profit-taking. When investors transfer BTC to exchanges, the market expects increased selling pressure," the expert explains.
Currently, inflows to Binance and Coinbase have fallen to levels seen in late February, while the Coinbase Prime indicator has dropped to early April lows. Taha believes this makes the latest decline more positive for Bitcoin's short-term prospects.
The Main Problem: Lack of New Capital
Technical analyst Axel Adler Jr. confirms that Bitcoin is holding a key resistance level around $58,000. However, according to him, the real problem in the market is deeper — the lack of fresh capital inflows.
"The inflow of new investors has turned negative, around -$1.2 billion. Bitcoin is now in the hands of old players, rather than benefiting from new demand," Adler notes.
My professional opinion: The weakening of selling pressure is undoubtedly a positive signal that could form the basis for a local bottom. However, until new capital returns to the market, any recovery will be fragile. The key level for bulls remains $58,000, and losing it could trigger a deeper correction. The market is currently in an accumulation phase, and a powerful catalyst is needed for a trend reversal, which is not yet visible.