Kalshi prepares for a historic IPO: sports betting and bitcoin under regulators' scrutiny
The rapidly growing prediction market platform Kalshi has begun preliminary discussions with investment banks about a potential initial public offering (IPO). According to my data, the company is considering a stock market listing in late 2027 to early 2028. This could be the first IPO in the prediction sector, which is a landmark event in itself.
Kalshi's financial performance is impressive: annual revenue has exceeded $2 billion, roughly three times the level of November 2025. Growth has been fueled by interest in sports markets—in May 2026, monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion, up 13.5% from April. The excitement surrounding the NBA and the 2026 FIFA World Cup played a key role, and a recent partnership with the U.S. National Hockey League (NHL) has only strengthened the trend.
In May, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a valuation of $22 billion. Investors include Coatue, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Since the start of 2025, the company has closed four major funding rounds, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors. Additionally, Kalshi has launched CFTC-approved perpetual futures on Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets, drawing criticism from CME Group, which insists on different regulation for such contracts.
Regulatory Fog: The Main Risk for Kalshi
Despite impressive successes, the key risk for Kalshi is regulatory uncertainty. This week, the state of Kentucky filed lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket over allegedly unlicensed sports betting. Similar documents were filed by representatives of Wisconsin, New York, Nevada, and other states. U.S. gaming associations have called on the Senate to include a ban on sports prediction markets in the Clarity Act bill.
Meanwhile, the CFTC insists that prediction markets are solely under its control and is litigating against several states attempting to restrict them. In April 2026, a New Jersey court sided with Kalshi, allowing the company to offer sports contracts, but the final word likely rests with the U.S. Supreme Court. If sports prediction markets are deemed illegal, Kalshi could lose up to 90% of its revenue—its primary income source.
My opinion: Kalshi's IPO is not just a financial transaction but a test of the entire prediction sector's maturity. If regulatory risks can be minimized, we will see a new asset class capable of competing with traditional exchanges. But as long as legal battles continue, investors should be cautious—the stakes have never been higher.