Kalshi Targets IPO: Prediction Market Ambitions Amid Regulatory Storms in the US
Prediction market platform Kalshi, experiencing explosive growth, has entered preliminary talks with investment banks regarding its initial public offering (IPO). According to my data, the company is considering going public in late 2027 or early 2028. This is a landmark move for the entire sector, which is currently at the epicenter of a regulatory battle in the United States.
The impetus for the IPO came from staggering financial performance. Kalshi's annual revenue has exceeded the $2 billion mark, roughly three times the level from November 2025. This surge was made possible by a rapid increase in user activity. In May 2026, the platform's monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion, up 13.5% compared to April. Key drivers were sporting events — the NBA markets and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Strengthening its position in this segment, Kalshi recently partnered with the National Hockey League (NHL).
Investors are also showing enormous appetite for the company's shares. In May, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a $22 billion valuation. The deal, led by fund Coatue, included giants such as Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Since the beginning of 2025, the company has closed four major funding rounds. Additionally, Kalshi launched CFTC-approved perpetual futures on bitcoin and other crypto assets, which, however, drew criticism from CME Group, which insists on a different regulatory regime for such contracts.
Main Risk: War with Regulators
Despite impressive successes, Kalshi's future hangs in the balance due to regulatory uncertainty. This week, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of unlicensed sports betting. Similar lawsuits have been filed by Wisconsin, New York, Nevada, and several other states. U.S. gambling associations are urging the Senate to include a ban on sports prediction markets in the Clarity Act bill.
Simultaneously, a battle is unfolding between states and the federal regulator — the CFTC. The Commission insists on its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and is already litigating against several states attempting to restrict them. In April 2026, a New Jersey court sided with Kalshi, allowing it to offer sports contracts, but the final word will likely rest with the U.S. Supreme Court.
My assessment: Kalshi's IPO is not just a corporate event, but a test of the viability of the entire prediction market industry. If courts rule sports contracts illegal, the company risks losing up to 90% of its revenue. We are currently witnessing a classic conflict between innovation and outdated legislation, which will determine the future of this sector in the U.S.