Kalshi prepares for a historic IPO: trillions in turnover and the shadow of regulators
Prediction market platform Kalshi has begun preliminary consultations with investment banks regarding a potential initial public offering (IPO). The company is considering going public in late 2027 to early 2028.
The discussions are at an early, informal stage, but the very fact that they have started speaks volumes about Kalshi's rapid financial rise. The platform's annual revenue has exceeded $2 billion, roughly three times the level from November 2025. This is unprecedented growth for the sector.
Sports as the Main Driver
In May 2026, Kalshi's monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion, showing a 13.5% increase compared to April. The main catalyst was a surge in activity around the NBA markets and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The platform's position was further strengthened by a recent partnership with the National Hockey League (NHL).
Investors' financial appetite is also impressive. In May, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a $22 billion valuation. The syndicate included giants such as Coatue, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Since the beginning of 2025, the company has closed four major funding rounds.
Notably, the launch of CFTC-approved perpetual futures on Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets deserves special attention. This move, predictably, drew criticism from CME Group, which insists on different regulation for such instruments.
A Regulatory Time Bomb
However, the main risk for Kalshi is not competition, but regulatory uncertainty within the United States itself. This week, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of unlicensed sports betting. Similar lawsuits have been filed by Wisconsin, New York, Nevada, and other states, while U.S. gambling associations are urging the Senate to include a ban on sports prediction markets in the Clarity Act bill.
The paradox of the situation is that the CFTC insists on its exclusive jurisdiction over these markets and is already litigating with several states. In April 2026, a New Jersey court sided with Kalshi, allowing it to offer sports contracts, but the final word will likely rest with the U.S. Supreme Court.
My analysis: An IPO for Kalshi is not just about raising capital, but a strategic move to legitimize and strengthen institutional trust. However, the fundamental risk is colossal: if sports prediction markets are deemed illegal, the company could lose up to 90% of its revenue. Investors should closely watch the legal battles, which will determine not only Kalshi's fate but also the future of the entire sector.