Kalshi targets historic IPO: betting on sports and bitcoin under CFTC scrutiny
The prediction market platform Kalshi, experiencing explosive growth, has entered preliminary discussions with investment banks regarding a potential initial public offering (IPO). The listing is expected to take place no earlier than late 2027 to early 2028. This event could become the first IPO in the prediction market sector and set the tone for the entire industry.
Financial Surge and Sports Driver
The decision to prepare for an IPO is backed by impressive financial performance. Kalshi's annual revenue has exceeded $2 billion, roughly three times the level seen in November 2025. The key growth catalyst has been the sports segment. In May 2026, the platform's monthly trading volume reached $16.81 billion, an increase of 13.5% compared to April. This surge in activity was driven by interest in NBA markets and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A recent partnership with the National Hockey League (NHL) also confirms the company's strategic focus on sports.
In May, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a valuation of $22 billion. The round was led by Coatue, with participants including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Since the beginning of 2025, the company has closed four major funding rounds. Additionally, Kalshi has launched CFTC-approved perpetual futures on bitcoin and other crypto assets, which, however, has drawn criticism from CME Group, which insists on a different regulatory regime for such contracts.
Regulatory Risks: The Main Hurdle for Ambitions
Despite impressive growth rates, the main risk for Kalshi remains regulatory uncertainty in the United States. This week, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket over allegedly unlicensed sports betting. Similar documents have been filed by representatives from Wisconsin, New York, Nevada, and other states. U.S. gaming associations have called on the Senate to include a ban on sports prediction markets in the Clarity Act bill.
Meanwhile, the CFTC insists that prediction markets are under its sole jurisdiction and is litigating against several states attempting to restrict them. In April 2026, a New Jersey court ruled in Kalshi's favor, allowing the company to offer sports contracts, but the final word will likely rest with the U.S. Supreme Court.
Expert Analysis: An IPO would send a powerful signal of legitimacy for the entire sector, attracting institutional capital. However, Kalshi's bet on sports markets is a double-edged sword. If legal proceedings lead to them being deemed illegal, the company could lose up to 90% of its revenue. Investors should closely monitor developments at the Supreme Court level, as this will determine whether the historic IPO takes place within the stated timeframe.