SpaceX loses $620 billion in market capitalization over two days: SPCX shares plummet 18% after IPO
SpaceX's December stock market debut turned into a dramatic correction. After shares of SPCX soared above $225 on the first day of trading, leading investors to believe in a fairy tale of instant riches, by the end of the second session, the stock had crashed 18% from its peak. The company's market capitalization shrank from $3 trillion to $2.37 trillion — a loss of over $620 billion. SpaceX, which briefly surpassed Amazon and Microsoft to become the world's fourth most valuable company by market cap, has now fallen to seventh place, closely approaching TSMC.
The reason for such a sharp decline is the announced June 16 deal to acquire AI tool developer Cursor, company Anysphere, for $60 billion. The all-stock payment diluted existing shareholders' stakes by 3.4% relative to SpaceX's IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion. The market reacted instantly: the volume-weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71, only slightly above the breakeven point for those who bought shares right at the opening.
Morningstar analysts have already lowered SpaceX's fair value estimate from $63 to $62, emphasizing that the deal increases dilution for an already overvalued issuer. Their most optimistic scenario suggests a price of $169 — below current market levels. This is a worrying signal: the company's fundamental valuation diverges from market hype.
Retail investor frenzy fades
The initial surge in SPCX was driven solely by retail investor enthusiasm. According to Vanda Research, over the first three sessions, retail buyers poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than into Nvidia over the same period. However, by Thursday, June 18, demand had sharply declined: net retail purchases fell to $9.1 million. Those who bought shares through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi at $135 are still in profit, but most received only a small portion of their ordered volume. Meanwhile, those who purchased shares at market prices above $200 are now booking losses.
Not all market participants are bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 after the Cursor deal, arguing that SpaceX gains access to AI talent and trained data. However, the stock lock-up period expires at the end of July, which could double the number of shares in free float. Additionally, a $20 billion bond issuance to fund xAI is being discussed — this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
Expert opinion: SpaceX's correction is a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The dilution from the Anysphere acquisition and the upcoming lock-up period create a strong bearish backdrop. However, if the first quarterly report, expected at the end of July, shows strong operational metrics, the decline could prove to be a temporary technical correction. For now, I recommend caution: current levels are not supported by fundamentals, and retail hype is fading.