SpaceX (SPCX) loses $620 billion in market capitalization over two days: an 18% drop after the IPO peak
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are undergoing a rapid correction after an impressive debut. In two days, the company's market capitalization has shrunk by approximately $620 billion — from $3 trillion to roughly $2.37 trillion. The stock price has fallen 18% from its all-time high reached immediately after the listing.
On Thursday, trading closed at $184.98, 3.6% lower than the previous day's level. The volume-weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71. This means that buyers who entered the asset after it went public are now on the verge of a loss — even though on Tuesday the price had risen above $225.
Reason for the crash: the Anysphere deal
The trigger for such a sharp decline was the June 16 announcement of SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor AI tool developer Anysphere. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares. This resulted in a 3.4% dilution of existing shareholders' stakes relative to SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO valuation. The market reacted negatively to the news, believing the company was overpaying for an asset using its own overvalued stock.
Morningstar analysts have already lowered the fair value of the shares from $63 to $62, noting that the deal only exacerbates the dilution of securities for an issuer already considered overvalued. Their most optimistic scenario suggests a value of $169 — below the current market price.
Retail investor frenzy fades
Interestingly, the initial surge in SPCX was largely driven by retail investors. In the first three sessions, they invested $369.8 million in the stock — four times more than in Nvidia over the same period. However, by Thursday, June 18, demand had sharply declined: net retail purchases fell to $9.1 million. Those who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi are still in profit, but most received only a small portion of their requested volume. Investors who purchased shares on the open market at higher prices are now facing paper losses.
Major participants in the perpetual contract market appear to have been preparing for the correction in advance.
Bearish view: supply pressure will increase
At the end of July, the share lock-up period expires, after which the number of shares in free float could double. Additionally, a possible $20 billion bond offering to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
Despite the negativity, not all market participants are bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 after the Cursor deal, noting that the acquisition will provide SpaceX with access to talent and an established developer community in the field of artificial intelligence.
My analysis: The SPCX correction is a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The initial hype surrounding the IPO was excessive, and the Anysphere deal merely acted as a catalyst for profit-taking. The key moment will be the first quarterly report, expected at the end of July. It will show whether the current decline is a technical correction or the beginning of a long-term downtrend. Until fundamentals confirm the $3 trillion valuation, selling pressure is likely to persist.