SpaceX dropped 18% after IPO: market cap lost $620 billion in 48 hours
Decades of anticipation, a trillion-dollar valuation, and a dizzying debut—followed by a sharp decline. SpaceX (SPCX) shares have fallen 18% from their all-time high reached on the first day of trading. Those who bought shares on the open market are now teetering on the edge of a loss. The market is frozen in anticipation: has the peak already passed?
On Thursday, trading closed at $184.98—3.6% lower than the previous day. The weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71. This means buyers are only slightly above the breakeven point. Yet just on Tuesday, the price had soared above $225.
From $3 Trillion to Seventh Place in the World
In two days, the company lost about $620 billion in market capitalization—the valuation fell from $3 trillion to approximately $2.37 trillion. For a brief time, SpaceX surpassed Amazon and Microsoft, ranking fourth in the world by market cap. It has now slipped to seventh place, competing closely with TSMC.
The reason for the decline was news from June 16: SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the AI coding tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in stock. This led to a 3.4% dilution of shares relative to SpaceX's IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion—and investors reacted instantly.
Morningstar analysts lowered the fair value of the stock from $63 to $62, noting that the deal increases dilution for an issuer already considered overvalued. Their most optimistic scenario projects a value of $169—below the current market price.
Retail Investor Hype Fades
The initial surge was driven solely by hype from retail investors. According to Vanda Research, in the first three sessions, retail buyers poured $369.8 million into SPCX—four times more than what flowed into Nvidia over the same period. But by Thursday, June 18, demand had sharply declined: net retail purchases dropped to $9.1 million.
Retail investors who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi are still in profit—though most received only a small portion of their requested volume. Meanwhile, those who bought at higher prices on the open market are now in the red. Large participants in the perpetual contract market had already prepared for a correction.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 following the Cursor deal. The expert believes the acquisition will provide SpaceX with access to AI talent, data, and an established developer community.
However, by the end of July, the stock lock-up period expires, after which the number of shares in free float could double. Additionally, a possible $20 billion bond issuance to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
The answer to whether the current decline is a technical correction or the start of a prolonged post-IPO downturn may come from SpaceX's first quarterly report, expected to be published in late July.
My professional opinion: SpaceX is not just a company; it is a flagship of a new technological era. But the market has already priced in decades of future success. Given the share dilution, the upcoming lock-up expiration, and potential debt burden, the current correction looks more like a sobering reality than a temporary dip. Investors should brace for volatility, not new records, in the coming weeks.