SpaceX loses $620 billion in two days after IPO: SPCX shares plummet 18% from peak
SpaceX (SPCX) shares experienced a sharp decline after their debut. Over two days, the company lost about $620 billion in market capitalization, and the stock price fell 18% from the all-time high reached on the listing day. Investors who bought shares on the open market are now teetering on the edge of a loss.
Trading on Thursday closed at $184.98 — 3.6% lower than the previous day. The volume-weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71, only slightly above the breakeven point. Recall that on Tuesday, quotes rose above $225.
From $3 Trillion to the Seventh Position
SpaceX's market capitalization shrank from $3 trillion to approximately $2.37 trillion. For a short time, the company surpassed Amazon and Microsoft, ranking fourth globally by market value, but has now dropped to seventh place, closely approaching TSMC.
The cause of the crash was the June 16 announcement of the acquisition of Anysphere — the developer of the AI coding tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares, leading to a 3.4% dilution relative to SpaceX's IPO valuation ($1.77 trillion).
Morningstar analysts lowered the fair value estimate for the stock from $63 to $62, noting that the deal increases dilution for an issuer already considered overvalued. The most optimistic scenario projects a value of $169 — below the current market price.
The Hype Fades
The decline was sharp, showing how much the initial surge relied on retail investor hype. According to Vanda Research, over the first three sessions, retail buyers poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than flowed into Nvidia over the same period. But by Thursday, June 18, demand had plummeted: net retail purchases fell to $9.1 million.
Retail investors who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi remain in profit for now, although most received only a fraction of their requested volume. Those who bought later, at higher prices on the open market, are now in the red. Major participants in the perpetual contract market had already prepared for the correction.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 following the Cursor deal. The expert noted that the acquisition will provide SpaceX with access to AI talent, training data, and an established developer community.
However, the share lock-up period expires at the end of July, after which the number of shares in free float could double. Additionally, a potential $20 billion bond issuance to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
The answer to whether this is a technical correction or the start of a prolonged post-IPO decline may come from SpaceX's first quarterly report, expected to be published at the end of July.
My Expertise: The situation with SpaceX is a classic example of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The IPO at the peak of hype, fueled by the Cursor deal, created ideal conditions for institutional profit-taking. Now, the key question is whether the company can justify its $2.37 trillion valuation with fundamental metrics, or if we are headed for further correction to more realistic levels. The first report will be the litmus test.