SpaceX dropped 18% after IPO: market cap lost $620 billion in two days
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are experiencing a rapid decline: just two days after the historic debut, quotes have collapsed by 18% from their peak values. Those who purchased the securities on the open market are now teetering on the brink of a loss. The market is naturally asking: has the peak already passed?
At the close of trading on Thursday, the price stood at $184.98 — 3.6% lower than the previous day. The weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71. In other words, buyers are only slightly above the breakeven point, even though on Tuesday the shares had soared above $225.
From $3 trillion to 7th place
SpaceX's market capitalization has shrunk from $3 trillion to approximately $2.37 trillion. For a time, the company surpassed Amazon and Microsoft, ranking fourth in the world, but has now dropped to seventh place, competing closely with TSMC.
The cause of the crash was news from June 16: SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the AI tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares, leading to a dilution of 3.4% relative to SpaceX's valuation at its IPO of $1.77 trillion.
Morningstar analysts lowered the fair value of the shares from $63 to $62, noting that the deal increases dilution for an issuer that was already considered overvalued. The most optimistic scenario envisions a price of $169 — below the current market price.
Hype is fading
The decline has been sharp, showing how much the initial surge was driven by retail investor hype. Over the first three sessions, retail buyers poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than what flowed into Nvidia over the same period. But by Thursday, June 18, demand had dropped sharply: by midday, net retail purchases had fallen to $9.1 million.
Retail investors who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi are still in profit, though most received only a small portion of their requested volume. Meanwhile, those who bought at higher prices on the open market are now sitting on paper losses. Major participants in the perpetual contract market had already prepared for a correction.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his target price to $250 following the Cursor deal. The expert noted that the acquisition will provide SpaceX with access to AI talent, data, and an established developer community.
However, by the end of July, the share lock-up period expires, after which the number of shares in free float could double. Additionally, a possible $20 billion bond issuance to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
The answer to whether this is a technical correction or the start of a prolonged post-IPO decline may come from SpaceX's first quarterly report, expected to be published at the end of July.
My view: The Cursor deal is a strategically sound move, but the $60 billion price tag in shares is an aggressive step that the market interpreted as a signal of dilution. In the short term, seller pressure will only intensify, especially after the lock-up expires. Buying the dip now is a high-risk game until a clear picture of the fundamentals emerges.