Crash after euphoria: SpaceX lost $620 billion in market capitalization in two days — shares plummeted by 18%
Decades of anticipation, a record-breaking debut, and... a rapid decline. SpaceX (SPCX) shares, which soared to the skies immediately after the IPO, are experiencing a brutal correction. In just 48 hours, the company's market capitalization shrank by an astronomical $620 billion, and the stock price fell 18% from its all-time high.
From $3 Trillion to $2.37 Trillion: The Agony of Retail Investors
On Thursday, trading closed at $184.98 — 3.6% below the intraday peak of the previous session. The volume-weighted average purchase price over the last five days was $181.71. Those who bought on the open market are now teetering on the edge of a loss. Just Tuesday, the stock was at $225.
SpaceX's market cap has collapsed from $3 trillion to approximately $2.37 trillion. The company, which briefly surpassed Amazon and Microsoft to claim the fourth spot globally, has slipped to seventh place, now closely approaching TSMC.
Cursor Shock: The Deal That Crashed the Market
The trigger for the crash was news from June 16: SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere — the developer of the AI coding tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares, resulting in a 3.4% dilution relative to the company's IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion.
Morningstar analysts have already lowered the fair value of the stock from $63 to $62, noting that even before this, the shares were considered overvalued. Their most optimistic scenario suggests a price of $169 — below the current market price.
Hype Fades: Retail Trapped
The decline was sharp, and it revealed how much the initial surge was fueled by retail investor hype. According to Vanda Research, over the first three trading sessions, retail buyers poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than into Nvidia over the same period. However, by Thursday, June 18, demand had plummeted: net retail purchases fell to $9.1 million.
Those who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi are still in profit, though most received only a fraction of their ordered volume. But those who bought in at higher prices on the open market are now in the red. Major participants in the perpetual contract market had already prepared for the correction.
Bullish Forecast and Looming Supply Wave
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 following the Cursor deal, noting that the acquisition will provide SpaceX with access to AI talent, data, and an established developer community.
However, by the end of July, the stock lock-up period expires, after which the number of shares in free float could double. Additionally, a potential $20 billion bond offering to fund xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
Expert Opinion: We are witnessing a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. The SpaceX IPO was the culmination of years of hype, but the reality of capital dilution and uncertainty around monetizing AI assets quickly sobered the market. The key question is whether the first quarterly report, expected at the end of July, can reverse the negative trend and restore institutional confidence. For now, the technical picture points to a continuation of the correction.