SpaceX loses $620 billion in two days: a correction after the IPO or the start of a new trend?
A decade of waiting, and here it is — SpaceX on the public market. However, the euphoria from the debut was short-lived. Just two days after the IPO, the company's market capitalization shrank by approximately $620 billion, and SPCX shares collapsed 18% from the all-time high of $225 reached immediately after the listing. Those who bought the shares on the open market are already practically at breakeven.
On Thursday, trading closed at $184.98 — 3.6% lower than the previous day. The weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71. This means the average buyer is only slightly above the breakeven point. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the price momentarily rose above $225.
From $3 Trillion to Seventh Place
Over two days, SpaceX's market capitalization plummeted from $3 trillion to approximately $2.37 trillion. For a time, the company surpassed Amazon and Microsoft, ranking fourth in the world, but has now slipped to seventh place, closely competing with TSMC.
The reason for such a sharp decline was news from June 16: SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere — the developer of the AI coding tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares, leading to a 3.4% dilution relative to SpaceX's valuation at the IPO of $1.77 trillion. The market interpreted this as a signal: the company is willing to pay for growth, but at the cost of capital dilution.
Morningstar analysts have already lowered the fair value of the shares from $63 to $62, noting that the deal increases dilution of securities from an issuer that was already considered overvalued. The analysts' most optimistic scenario envisions a price of $169 — below the current market price.
Retail Investor Hype Fades
The initial surge was driven by retail investor hype. Over the first three sessions, retail buyers poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than flowed into Nvidia over the same period. But by Thursday, June 18, demand had sharply declined: by midday, net retail purchases had dropped to $9.1 million.
Retail investors who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi remain in profit for now, although most received only a small portion of their requested volume. Meanwhile, those who bought at higher prices on the open market are currently sitting on paper losses. Major participants in the perpetual contract market had already prepared for a correction in advance.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised the target price to $250 after the Cursor deal, noting that the acquisition will provide SpaceX with access to AI talent, data, and an established developer community. However, the share lock-up period expires at the end of July, after which the number of shares in free float could double. Additionally, a possible $20 billion bond issuance to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure on SPCX.
The answer to whether this is a technical correction or the beginning of a prolonged decline after the IPO may come from SpaceX's first quarterly report, expected to be published at the end of July.
Expert opinion: The market is punishing SpaceX for what it perceived as an expensive and dilutive deal. However, if the company can monetize Cursor and integrate it into its space projects, the long-term potential remains high. But in the coming weeks, selling pressure, especially after the lock-up expiration, will dominate.