SpaceX dropped 18% after IPO: $620 billion evaporated in two days
SpaceX's public market debut was not as triumphant as expected. In just two trading sessions, the company's shares (ticker SPCX) lost 18% from their all-time high reached immediately after the listing. The market capitalization crashed from $3 trillion to approximately $2.37 trillion — a loss of $620 billion in a matter of hours. Those who bought shares on the open market are now teetering on the edge of a loss.
Falling from the peak: from $225 to the breakeven zone
On Thursday, trading closed at $184.98 — 3.6% lower than the previous day. The volume-weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71. This means most buyers are only slightly above the breakeven point. Yet on Tuesday, immediately after the IPO, the price soared above $225 — it was at this peak that many retail investors entered their positions.
The reason for the sharp reversal is news from June 16: SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the AI coding tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares. This led to a 3.4% dilution relative to SpaceX's IPO valuation ($1.77 trillion). The market interpreted this as a signal: even after such a powerful debut, the company is willing to give away its shares as currency for acquisitions.
Analysts lower fair value
Morningstar experts lowered the fair value of the shares from $63 to $62, noting that the deal increases dilution of already overvalued securities. Their most optimistic scenario suggests a price of $169 — which is already below current market levels. In other words, even the most positive forecasts do not justify the current valuation.
On the other hand, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised the target price to $250, arguing that the acquisition of Cursor gives SpaceX access to talent and a developer community in the AI field. However, such bullish voices are currently in the minority.
Retail frenzy fades
In the first three sessions after the IPO, retail investors poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than into Nvidia over the same period. But by Thursday, June 18, demand had sharply declined: net retail purchases fell to $9.1 million. Those who bought shares through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi at $135 (the IPO price) are still in profit, but most received only a small portion of their ordered volume. And those who bought at higher prices on the open market are already in the red.
Additional pressure will come from the expiration of the share lock-up period at the end of July — the number of shares in free float could double. Furthermore, a possible $20 billion bond issuance to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this will only increase supply-side pressure.
Expert opinion: The decline of SpaceX after the IPO is a classic example of overheating at the start, when retail investor frenzy and inflated expectations collide with the reality of corporate decisions. The Cursor deal showed that management is willing to dilute shareholder value for strategic acquisitions. The first quarterly report, due out at the end of July, will be a key indicator: if fundamental metrics do not support the current valuation, the correction could continue. For now, the market is voting with its feet.