Massive SpaceX Collapse: $620 Billion Evaporated in 48 Hours — What's Behind the 18% Drop?
The initial public offering of SpaceX (SPCX) turned into a bitter disappointment for many investors. In just two trading days, the company's market capitalization shrank by approximately $620 billion, and the stock price plummeted 18% from the all-time high reached immediately after its debut. Those who bought shares on the open market are already teetering on the edge of a loss.
As of Thursday's close, SpaceX shares were trading at $184.98, 3.6% below Wednesday's level. The weighted average purchase price over the last five sessions was $181.71. This is only slightly above the breakeven point — and this despite the fact that on Tuesday, quotes soared above $225.
From $3 Trillion to Seventh Place: How Elon Musk Lost the Lead
The decline was so rapid that SpaceX moved from fourth place in the global market capitalization ranking to seventh in just two days. At its peak, the company was worth $3 trillion — surpassing Amazon and Microsoft. Now its valuation hovers around $2.37 trillion, and it has drawn very close to TSMC.
The reason for such a sharp correction is the news from June 16 about the purchase of Anysphere, the developer of the AI tool Cursor. The $60 billion deal was fully paid for in shares, leading to a dilution of 3.4% relative to SpaceX's valuation at the IPO of $1.77 trillion. The market perceived this as a negative signal, especially against the backdrop of already inflated multiples.
Morningstar analysts have already lowered the fair value of the shares from $63 to $62, noting that even their most optimistic scenario of $169 is below the current market price. In other words, the shares are trading at a premium that is extremely difficult to justify fundamentally.
Hype Fades: Retail Investors Lose Interest
The initial surge in demand was driven solely by the hype of retail investors. In the first three sessions, they poured $369.8 million into SPCX — four times more than they invested in Nvidia shares over a comparable period. However, by Thursday, June 18, net retail purchases had fallen to $9.1 million. The hype dried up as quickly as it appeared.
Retail investors who bought shares at $135 through Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi are still in profit, although most received only a small portion of their ordered volumes. Meanwhile, those who bought at higher prices are already facing paper losses. Major participants in the perpetual contract market, it seems, were preparing for the correction in advance.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250, arguing that the Cursor deal will give SpaceX access to talent and an established developer community in the AI field. However, supply-side pressure is mounting on the market: the share lock-up period expires at the end of July, which could double the number of shares in free float. Additionally, a $20 billion bond issuance to finance xAI is being discussed. All of this creates a powerful backdrop for further decline.
Expert Opinion: The fall of SpaceX is a classic example of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The IPO was overheated by expectations, and the dilutive deal became a trigger for profit-taking. The key question now is whether the first quarterly report, expected at the end of July, can restore investor confidence. If fundamental indicators fail to meet inflated expectations, we could see a continued correction down to $150–160.