World Cup 2026 Bets: USA and Brazil Dominate, While Golf on Kalshi Breaks Records with $231 Million
Prediction markets continue to gain momentum, and today's odds for the 2026 FIFA World Cup matches show a clear trend: favorites are confidently solidifying their positions. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the US and Brazil national teams have become clear leaders in their respective matches, attracting millions of dollars in trading volume. Meanwhile, on the Kalshi platform, there is a frenzy around the US Open golf tournament, which has already amassed a colossal $231 million — making it one of the largest sports markets on the platform.
USA vs. Australia: Battle for the Playoffs
In the Group D match, the Americans are overwhelming favorites. Both platforms estimate their win probability at 62%, with a contract price of $0.61 on Polymarket. A draw is priced at 22%, while an Australian victory stands at just 18%. This outlook emerged after the US team's confident start, crushing Paraguay 4-1. Australia, in turn, surprised with a win over Turkey (2-0), and both teams now have three points each. However, the market clearly favors the tournament hosts. Trading volume for this match on Kalshi has exceeded $15.9 million, indicating enormous interest — the winner of this match virtually guarantees a spot in the playoffs.
Brazil: No Room for Error
Brazil looks even more dominant as a favorite in their match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the five-time champions' win probability at 89%, with a contract price of $0.89. Haiti's chances are just 4%, and a draw is at 8%. The market volume for this game is around $3.64 million. Note that Brazil's tournament start was less than ideal, drawing with Morocco in the first round. Therefore, a confident victory over the underdog is critical for them — any slip-up could seriously complicate their path out of the group. In other matches of the day, favorites also dominate: Morocco (odds $0.58) against Scotland, and Turkey ($0.47) against Paraguay.
Golf Boom on Kalshi: $231 Million on the US Open
Special attention is due to the market for the US Open golf winner, which has gathered about $231 million on Kalshi. This is one of the largest sports contracts on the platform. After the second round, American Wyndham Clark leads the odds with a 20% win probability. He is followed by Britain's Matt Fitzpatrick (12%) and Rory McIlroy (8.4%). The tournament runs from June 18 to 21 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club (New York), where 156 players are competing for the title.
My analysis: The current dynamics in prediction markets clearly reflect a shift in interest from traditional sports to niche ones. $231 million on golf is not just a number, but a signal that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are becoming universal hubs for betting on any event. For crypto investors, this is further confirmation that prediction markets are not hype, but a mature tool with real liquidity and analytical value. Keep an eye on these trends — they are shaping the future of decentralized finance.