The USA and Brazil dominate the 2026 World Cup prediction markets, while golf on Kalshi breaks records with $231 million.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi have clearly identified the favorites for today's 2026 World Cup matches: the US and Brazil national teams confidently lead the odds. Meanwhile, on the Kalshi platform, excitement has surged around the US Open golf tournament, with trading volume exceeding $231 million. This is a clear indicator of how quickly decentralized markets are capturing the sports segment.
USA vs. Australia: Battle for the Playoffs
In the Group D match against Australia, the US national team is the clear favorite. Both Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the Americans' chance of winning at 62%, with a contract price of $0.61. A draw is valued at 22%, while an Australian victory stands at only 18%. The market volume on Kalshi for this match has exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting enormous fan interest. Winning this head-to-head encounter effectively opens the door to the playoffs, making bets on it particularly active.
These odds emerged after the Americans' confident start, where they routed Paraguay 4-1. Australia also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly defeating Turkey 2-0, so both teams enter this match with three points.
Brazil and Other Matches of the Day
Brazil looks like an even more decisive favorite in its match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates Brazil's chance of winning at 89%, with a contract price of $0.89. Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw for 8%. The market volume for this game is around $3.64 million. Notably, Brazil did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round. Therefore, a confident victory over Haiti is extremely important for the pentacampeões.
In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the Scotland vs. Morocco pairing, the Moroccans are the favorites with odds of $0.58, while in the Turkey vs. Paraguay match, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Golf on Kalshi: US Open Gathers $231 Million
Deserving special attention is the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange surrounding the US Open golf tournament. The market for the winner has amassed a colossal volume of around $231 million, making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% chance of winning. He is followed by Britain's Matt Fitzpatrick at 12% and Rory McIlroy at 8.4%.
The 126th US Open tournament is taking place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players are competing for the title. Such a high betting volume shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports.
Expert Opinion: The growth in volume on Polymarket and Kalshi's sports markets is not just a trend but a fundamental shift. We are witnessing decentralized platforms becoming an alternative to traditional bookmakers, offering transparency and global access. $231 million on a single golf tournament is a signal that the sports prediction industry in crypto format is just beginning to gain momentum.