The main threat to bitcoin is not a market crash, but prolonged stagnation: Expert opinion
Contrary to popular belief, the main danger for bitcoin lies not in a sharp drop in quotes. A much more serious risk, in my opinion, is a prolonged sideways consolidation. It is this, not a crash, that can undermine the very foundation of demand for the asset.
The market can survive a sharp decline if faith in subsequent growth remains. However, multi-year movement in a narrow range gradually kills this narrative. When the price gets stuck in a "sideways trend," investors begin to lose patience, and buying demand weakens. This is especially critical for structures like STRC (Strategy perpetual preferred shares), through which Michael Saylor raises capital to buy bitcoin. If the price does not rise, the company's stock premium shrinks, and the capital-raising machine becomes less stable. Consequently, the entrepreneur's task now is not just to buy coins, but to give the market a fundamentally new reason to believe in the asset.
Narratives are losing strength
In ten years of working in the industry, I have come to the conclusion: the essence of bitcoin hardly changes. Only the story around it transforms. It is these stories that explain why the price should rise. But today, most of the old narratives look completely exhausted. Bitcoin was called digital gold, but during crises it traded like a tech stock. It was considered money of freedom, yet many crypto industry veterans now choose other coins. The development of artificial intelligence constantly heightens fears about quantum computing.
At the same time, I still believe in long-term price growth. The influx of institutional capital is inevitable. My past predictions have fully come true: in 2018, I counted on the launch of spot ETFs and also expected the emergence of a US president supporting cryptocurrency. Both scenarios have been successfully realized. However, the feeling of an inevitable powerful catalyst is now noticeably weaker.
In search of new meaning
The creator of CryptoQuant finds it sad to observe the erosion of the original ideas. The concepts of freedom money and energy value are gradually disappearing. Saylor promotes ideas of bitcoin banking and digital lending, but such concepts are too complex for ordinary people. I genuinely miss the times when the main bitcoin message was freedom.
Expert opinion: The market is currently in a phase of searching for a new "anchor." Until the industry offers the mass investor a simple and understandable story capable of replacing outdated narratives, a prolonged sideways trend will remain the main risk for bitcoin.