U.S. lawmakers want to cut off access to prediction markets: a new blow to Kalshi and Polymarket
American lawmakers may soon lose access to the most popular platforms for betting on political events. The initiative, named the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, aims to prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and minor children from placing bets on the outcomes of political decisions and government events through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Essence of the Bill: Fighting Insider Trading or Protecting Reputation?
The author of the document is a Republican from Wisconsin who chairs the House Administration Committee. His main argument: lawmakers have access to confidential information that is unavailable to ordinary market participants. Using this advantage for betting is a direct threat to trust in state institutions.
The bill expands the provisions of the previously approved Stop Insider Trading Act. Essentially, the new initiative is a logical continuation of the trend toward stricter oversight. It directly bans bets on specific government decisions, actions by authorities, and outcomes of political events.
Fines and Sanctions: No Right to Amnesty
Violators face a fine of $2,000 or 10% of the bet amount—whichever is greater. Profits obtained from illegal bets must be returned. Notably, it will be impossible to pay the fine using official funds, Senate accounts, or political donations. Moreover, if a violator resigns without settling the debt, their case may be referred to the Department of Justice for a civil lawsuit.
An important nuance: the ban does not apply to non-political events, such as sports matches. This underscores the targeted nature of the initiative.
General Trend Toward Tightening
This is not an isolated measure. In March, a group of senators—Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff—introduced their own bill, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. It aims to combat insider trading on any platform. In the House of Representatives, the PREDICT Act is moving forward in parallel, with similar measures for the families of officials.
Market operators themselves have already begun preparations. As early as June, Kalshi launched a risk assessment and employment verification system, while Polymarket integrated Chainalysis for on-chain monitoring. It is clear that the platforms recognize the seriousness of the threat.
Expert Opinion: This bill is not just about combating insider trading; it is a signal that prediction markets are beginning to be seen as a serious tool of influence. If passed, it would set a precedent that could affect not only political but also other high-risk categories of predictions. For Kalshi and Polymarket, this is an existential challenge, as politics is their key growth driver.