The main threat to bitcoin is not a crash, but years of boredom: opinion of the CryptoQuant founder
The market will survive a sharp decline, but prolonged stagnation could kill the main growth driver of the first cryptocurrency. This conclusion was reached by the founder of the analytical platform CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, while analyzing the current demand structure and risks for Bitcoin.
In my deep conviction, the key danger for Bitcoin today is not a bearish trend, but a prolonged sideways movement. The market successfully digests sharp drawdowns as long as faith in the next surge remains. However, multi-year price movement within a narrow range destroys the very narrative that sustains buying demand. This is not just a technical correction—it is an existential threat to the narrative.
Why a Sideways Market is More Dangerous Than a Crash: A Structural Analysis
The analyst's logic is built around Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) financing model through perpetual preferred shares (STRC). Michael Saylor, the largest public holder of BTC, uses precisely this instrument to raise capital. As long as the price rises or at least holds, the structure works. But during a prolonged sideways market, the stock premium shrinks, and the capital-raising mechanism becomes vulnerable.
The entrepreneur's real task is now different. He needs not just to buy coins, but to give the market a fundamentally new reason to believe in the asset. Without this, even the institutional capital inflow that I expect may prove insufficient for a breakout.
Old Stories No Longer Work
Over ten years in the industry, I have made an important observation: the essence of Bitcoin hardly changes. Only the story around it transforms—these are the narratives that explain why the price should rise. But today, most old narratives appear completely exhausted.
- Digital gold — during crises, Bitcoin trades like a tech stock, not a safe-haven asset.
- Freedom money — many crypto industry veterans are already choosing other coins.
- Quantum computing threat — the development of AI constantly amplifies these concerns.
At the same time, the analyst continues to believe in long-term growth. His past predictions—the launch of spot ETFs in 2018 and the arrival of a pro-crypto U.S. president—have fully materialized. However, the feeling of an inevitable powerful catalyst is now noticeably weaker.
In Search of New Meaning
The founder of CryptoQuant finds it sad to observe the erosion of the original ideas. The concepts of freedom money and energy value are gradually disappearing. Saylor promotes ideas of Bitcoin banking and digital lending—but such concepts are too complex for ordinary people. I genuinely miss the times when the main Bitcoin message was freedom.
My analysis: The market is currently in a phase of searching for a new big narrative. Until it emerges, even institutional money will not be able to ensure sustainable growth. The key challenge for Bitcoin is not price, but meaning. And this challenge has yet to be resolved.