Boredom kills bitcoin: the number one threat is not a market crash, but prolonged stagnation.
The cryptocurrency market, and primarily Bitcoin, faces a threat far more dangerous than a sharp price drop. This refers to a prolonged sideways trend—a state where the price stagnates for weeks and months. It is this, not a sudden crash, that can undermine investors' faith in the asset's future growth.
Analyzing the current situation, I conclude that the industry can survive a sharp decline. The market adapts if the narrative of a future rally remains intact. But prolonged stagnation destroys the very story that sustains demand. Under such conditions, buying interest weakens, and along with it, the premium on shares of companies like Strategy, which finances Bitcoin purchases through the STRС structure (perpetual preferred shares).
This structure becomes vulnerable precisely during multi-year price movements within a narrow range. Michael Saylor's capital-raising machine loses its stability. The entrepreneur's real task is not just to accumulate coins, but to give the market a fundamentally new reason to believe in the asset.
Narratives Lose Their Power
Over ten years in the industry, I've made an important observation: the essence of Bitcoin hardly changes. Only the story around it transforms. These stories explain why the price should rise. However, today, most old narratives appear completely exhausted.
- Digital gold. Despite this status, Bitcoin trades like a tech stock during crises.
- Freedom money. Many crypto industry veterans now choose other coins.
- Quantum threat. The development of AI constantly intensifies fears about quantum computing.
I still believe in long-term growth and expect an influx of institutional capital. My past predictions have fully materialized: in 2018, I anticipated the launch of spot ETFs and also expected a US president supportive of cryptocurrency. Both scenarios successfully came to pass. However, the feeling of an inevitable powerful catalyst is now noticeably weaker.
In Search of New Meaning
It saddens me to witness the erosion of the original ideas. The concepts of freedom money and energy value are gradually disappearing. Saylor promotes ideas of Bitcoin banking and digital lending, but such concepts are too complex for ordinary people. I genuinely miss the times when the main Bitcoin message was freedom.
My conclusion: Until the market finds a simple and inspiring narrative capable of replacing outdated stories, Bitcoin risks getting stuck in a swamp of boredom. It is the absence of a powerful idea, not a price of $50,000 or $100,000, that represents the main long-term threat to the first cryptocurrency.